Development of a mathematical model for solar module in photovoltaic systems

A mathematical model of a solar module is presented. This model takes into account solar model temperature and solar radiation. The experimental data of a solar module under natural environment condition (NEC) have been obtained to determine the model parameters. The experimental results are compared with those calculated by using a mathematical model. It shows that the mathematical model accurately simulates the current-voltage characteristics of the solar module under the NEC and therefore is suitable for photovoltaic system design and performance analysis.

A mathematical model of neuromuscular adaptation to resistance training and its application in a computer simulation of accommodating loads

A large corpus of data obtained by means of empirical study of neuromuscular adaptation is currently of limited use to athletes and their coaches. One of the reasons lies in the unclear direct practical utility of many individual trials. This paper introduces a mathematical model of adaptation to resistance training, which derives its elements from physiological fundamentals on the one side, and empirical findings on the other. The key element of the proposed model is what is here termed the athlete’s capability profile. This is a generalization of length and velocity dependent force production characteristics of individual muscles, to an exercise with arbitrary biomechanics. The capability profile, a two-dimensional function over the capability plane, plays the central role in the proposed model of the training-adaptation feedback loop. Together with a dynamic model of resistance the capability profile is used in the model’s predictive stage when exercise performance is simulated using a numerical approximation of differential equations of motion. Simulation results are used to infer the adaptational stimulus, which manifests itself through a fed back modification of the capability profile. It is shown how empirical evidence of exercise specificity can be formulated mathematically and integrated in this framework. A detailed description of the proposed model is followed by examples of its application—new insights into the effects of accommodating loading for powerlifting are demonstrated. This is followed by a discussion of the limitations of the proposed model and an overview of avenues for future work.

Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

A universal optimization strategy for ant colony optimization algorithms based on the Physarum-inspired mathematical model

Ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithms often fall into the local optimal solution and have lower search efficiency for solving the travelling salesman problem (TSP). According to these shortcomings, this paper proposes a universal optimization strategy for updating the pheromone matrix in the ACO algorithms. The new optimization strategy takes advantages of the unique feature of critical paths reserved in the process of evolving adaptive networks of the Physarum-inspired mathematical model (PMM). The optimized algorithms, denoted as PMACO algorithms, can enhance the amount of pheromone in the critical paths and promote the exploitation of the optimal solution. Experimental results in synthetic and real networks show that the PMACO algorithms are more efficient and robust than the traditional ACO algorithms, which are adaptable to solve the TSP with single or multiple objectives. Meanwhile, we further analyse the influence of parameters on the performance of the PMACO algorithms. Based on these analyses, the best values of these parameters are worked out for the TSP.

A multi-objective ant colony optimization algorithm based on the physarum-inspired mathematical model

Multi-objective traveling salesman problem (MOTSP) is an important field in operations research, which has wide applications in the real world. Multi-objective ant colony optimization (MOACO) as one of the most effective algorithms has gained popularity for solving a MOTSP. However, there exists the problem of premature convergence in most of MOACO algorithms. With this observation in mind, an improved multiobjective network ant colony optimization, denoted as PMMONACO, is proposed, which employs the unique feature of critical tubes reserved in the network evolution process of the Physarum-inspired mathematical model (PMM). By considering both pheromones deposited by ants and flowing in the Physarum network, PM-MONACO uses an optimized pheromone matrix updating strategy. Experimental results in benchmark networks show that PM-MONACO can achieve a better compromise solution than the original MOACO algorithm for solving MOTSPs.

Chemical structure based prediction of PAN and oxidized PAN fiber density through a non-linear mathematical model

The production of carbon fiber, particularly the oxidation/stabilization step, is a complex process. In the present study, a non-linear mathematical model has been developed for the prediction of density of polyacrylonitrile (PAN) and oxidized PAN fiber (OPF), as a key physical property for various applications, such as energy and material optimization, modeling, and design of the stabilization process. The model is based on the available functional groups in PAN and OPF. Expected functional groups, including [Formula presented], [Formula presented], –CH2, [Formula presented], and [Formula presented], were identified and quantified through the full deconvolution analysis of Fourier transform infrared attenuated total reflectance (FT-IR ATR) spectra obtained from fibers. These functional groups form the basis of three stabilization rendering parameters, representing the cyclization, dehydrogenation and oxidation reactions that occur during PAN stabilization, and are used as the independent variables of the non-linear predictive model. The k-fold cross validation approach, with k = 10, has been employed to find the coefficients of the model. This model estimates the density of PAN and OPF independent of operational parameters and can be expanded to all operational parameters. Statistical analysis revealed good agreement between the governing model and experiments. The maximum relative error was less than 1% for the present model.

Mathematical modelling of the refractive index reconstruction through global optimization

We examine a mathematical model of non-destructive testing of planar waveguides, based on numerical solution of a nonlinear integral equation. Such problem is ill-posed, and the method of Tikhonov regularization is applied. To minimize Tikhonov functional, and find the parameters of the waveguide, we use two new optimization methods: the cutting angle method of global optimization, and the discrete gradient method of nonsmooth local optimization. We examine how the noise in the experimental data influences the solution, and how the regularization parameter has to be chosen. We show that even with significant noise in the data, the numerical solution is of high accuracy, and the method can be used to process real experimental da.ta..

Analysis of work hardening and recrystallization during the hot working of steel using a statistically based internal variable model

A mathematical model has been developed which describes the hot deformation and recrystallization behavior of austenite using a single internal variable: dislocation density. The dislocation density is incorporated into equations describing the rate of recovery and recrystallization. In each case no distinction is made between static and dynamic events, and the model is able to simulate multideformation processes. The model is statistically based and tracks individual populations of the dislocation density during the work-hardening and softening phases. After tuning using available data the model gave an accurate prediction of the stress–strain behavior and the static recrystallization kinetics for C–Mn steels. The model correctly predicted the sensitivity of the post deformation recrystallization behavior to process variables such as strain, strain rate and temperature, even though data for this were not explicitly incorporated in the tuning data set. In particular, the post dynamic recrystallization (generally termed metadynamic recrystallization) was shown to be largely independent of strain and temperature, but a strong function of strain rate, as observed in published experimental work.

Mathematical modelling of downflow floating medium filter (DFF) with in-line flocculation arrangement

A laboratory-scale set-up consisting of rapid mixing device and floating medium filter was used to study the use of a downflow floating medium filter (DFF) with an in-line flocculation arrangement as a static flocculator and a prefilter. The semi-empirical mathematical model formulated incorporates flocculation within the filter, particle/floc attachment onto the filter and the detachment of flocs from the medium. The mathematical model for filtration takes into account the expansion of the filter bed. The removal efficiency of DFF and headless development were successfully simulated for different conditions of filtration velocity, filter depth and influent suspended solids (SS). The values of attachment coefficient a(p)β and headless coefficient β1 were found to be independent of filtration velocity, filter depth and influent SS concentration.

Mortality disparities between geographic regions : results from a risk percentiles model for coronary heart disease

Background: Planning of disease prevention strategies requires information regarding the distribution of absolute risk in the population to allow targeting of people at high disease risk. It is well known that death rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) are higher in remote areas of Australia compared with major cities. Less well understood is the distribution of the absolute risk of CHD death within the different geographic regions. We present a mathematical model of CHD which projects the lifetime risk of death among individuals in different percentiles of CHD risk. We apply this to model the distribution of CHD risk within different geographic regions.

Methods: Using information from the Framingham1, MRFIT2 and AusDiab3 studies, the Australian population was divided into percentiles of CHD risk within age and gender groups by geographic location. Absolute mortality risk was determined at each percentile using current Australian mortality data. Survival curves were generated for each percentile using these risk estimates. Approximate confidence intervals were derived using bootstrap methods.

Conclusions: The difference in life expectancy at age 25 between those in the lowest decile of CHD risk compared to the highest was 5.8 years (95%CI:4.7,6.7) in major cities compared to 8.5 years (95%CI:7.6,9.7) in remote areas. The difference in risk of premature death (before age 75) was 12% (95%CI:10%,14%) in major cities compared to 33% (95%CI:28%,38%) in remote areas.

Building awareness of mathematical modelling at teacher education: a case study in Indonesia

A growing interest to teach mathematics closely connected to its use in daily life has taken place in Indonesia for over a decade (Sembiring, Hadi, and Dolk 2008). This chapter  reports an exploratory case study of  the building of an awareness of mathematical modelling in teacher education in Indonesia. A modelling task, re-designing a parking lot (Ang 2009), was assigned to groups of pre-service secondary mathematics teachers. All groups undertook the stages of collecting data on a parking lot, identifying limitations in the current design of the parking lot, and proposing a new design based on their observations and analyses. The nature of the mathematical models elicited by pre-service teachers during various stages of completing the modelling task will be examined. Implications of this study suggest the need to encourage pre-service teachers to state the assumptions and real-world considerations and link them to the mathematical model in order to validate their models.

Optimal effort investment for overcoming the weakest point: new insights from a computational model of neuromuscular adaptation

The occurrence of so-called sticking points in a lift is pervasive in weight training practice. Biomechanically complex exercises often exhibit multi modal variation of effective force exerted against the load as a function of the elevation and velocity of the load. This results in a variety of possible loci for the occurrence of sticking points and makes the problem of designing the optimal training strategy to overcome them challenging. In this article a case founded on theoretical grounds is made against a purely empirical method. It is argued that the nature of the problem considered and the wide range of variables involved limit the generality of conclusions which can be drawn from experimental studies alone. Instead an alternative is described, whereby a recently proposed mathematical model of neuromuscular adaptation is employed in a series of computer simulations. These are used to examine quantitatively the effects of differently targeted partial range of motion (ROM) training approaches. Counter-intuitively and in contrast to common training practices, the key novel insight inferred from the obtained results is that in some cases the most effective approach for improving performance in an exercise with a sticking point at a particular point in the ROM is to improve force production capability at a different and possibly remote position in the lift. In the context of the employed model, this result is explained by changes in the neuromuscular and biomechanical environment for force production.